Swedish general elections 2022 - How the far-right went from "Preserve Sweden Swedish" to "Change for Real"
Source: The Local
The recent electoral success for the far-right in Sweden is a result of many changes in society since the 2000s. In many ways, the political development in Sweden is reflecting a worldwide trend of changing voting behaviors, political alliances and the effects of globalization. Due to new political realities, it is going to be harder for Sweden to keep developing itself as one of the most open, liberal and globalized societies in the world.
Twelve years ago, Sweden stopped being one of the few countries in the European Union without far-right parties with parliamentary representation. Since Sweden is one of the most tolerant and open societies worldwide, the entry of the far-right populist Sweden Democrats party was generally experienced as shocking and negative. Worrying reactions included fresh memories for many Swedes of how Sweden Democrats operated as a Neo-Nazi party during the 1990s with swastikas at meetings, Waffen SS-veterans among founding members and refugees being attacked by their supporters.
Historically, it is nothing new in Sweden with voters who like political proposals defined as populist, authoritarian, nationalist, or as against principles of liberal/constitutional democracy. The beginning of the 1990s in Sweden was also a period when a right-wing populist party called New Democracy had 6,7% voter support in the Swedish parliament. This party even had a libertarian wing but was mainly pushing its politics through nativist, racist and bigoted rhetoric. What is new is that political conflicts, values and behaviors have changed very much during the 2000s concerning social, economic and cultural changes resulting in Sweden becoming a more diverse and developed immigration country, and one of the world’s most globalized, individualist and liberal societies.
The 2010 elections are interesting when understanding right-wing populism because they are also seen as the last elections when the majority of voters were “clan voters”. For example, a factory worker would vote for the Social Democrats (Labour), a farmer would vote for the Center Party (former Peasant Union) and a small business owner would vote for the Conservative (Moderate) Party. Today, class status is considered as less important and more Swedes are behaving as “floaters” - voters who sympathize with and vote for different parties regarding different policies, issues and decision-making levels.
One of the main reasons for Sweden Democrats entering the parliament in 2010 was that the party was offering an alternative partly to many former class voters and partly to voters who were not attached to any of the other parties in the parliament, often because of their more or less positive positions regarding immigration. In practice, both a working-class person who wanted more welfare spending, “Swexit” (leaving the EU) but also to prevent Muslim asylum-seekers and a small business owner who wanted “Swedish values” nationalism, more data surveillance and to ban hijab-wearing in public could now vote for the far-right. In many ways, Sweden Democrats offer a combination of economic, social, and cultural collectivism, nationalism and arbitrary behaviors by mainly attracting voters who have abandoned the larger Social Democratic Party and Conservative Party during the 2000s when the parties took more cosmopolitan and liberal positions regarding “Islam, immigration and identity”.
Despite being seen as one of the most individualist and open societies, parts of the Swedish population have since the 1990s always been prone to different types of repressive and collectivist behaviors regarding immigration, homosexuality and cultural pluralism. In research, moral psychologists such as Karen Stenner and Jonathan Haidt use the term “authoritarian dynamics” to describe how our brain reacts to social changes, perception of order and experiences of reality. One of the main reasons for the recent electoral success of Sweden Democrats during the September elections is how the party has communicated regarding law and order, crime and punishment issues concerning immigration, identification and cohesion. For example, the party's social media tactic is to create a sense of chaos, and disorder as by writing about the “civil war in Sweden” and posting photos of burning cars in urban areas with a larger number of residents born outside of Sweden.
The authoritarian dynamic development and tribalist behaviors can also be seen with the party’s core supporters ignoring and rejecting academic research and complexity regarding crime. Because much of the research has shown that the rise of violent and gang crimes is more of a result in relation of existing narcotics policy and social problems, not because of the “link with immigration”. In contrast, much of the crime in general in Sweden has decreased during the 2010s. Furthermore, when it comes to political behaviors, the case of Sweden Democrats is that most of their voters mostly do not want more economic nor socio-cultural liberalism and, when compared to voters of the other parties in general, tend to be much more racist, pessimistic and negative as when it comes to public institutions, humanitarian immigration and diversity.
At the same time, the mentioned behaviors are paradoxical and even absurd when it comes to Sweden Democrats’ self-image because the party is not so popular nor “people-oriented,” as many believe. Most of their voters agree with statements that they do not like the party’s political agenda in general and that they could vote for other parties like the Conservative Party, meaning that Sweden Democrats only have a minority of core voters. Most Swedes would still never vote for Sweden Democrats anyway and the party is also the most centralized one in the parliament. Despite its electoral success, the party is not even represented in all of 290 municipalities and is known for the “empty chair situation” since the party does not always have enough willing members to take seats in local assemblies. Also, the party is still mainly popular in southern Sweden, a historically more conservative area, while still being more unpopular in “the red North” and in big cities such as Stockholm and Gothenburg, where people are more used to and familiar with global migration, lifestyles and market interactions.
Nevertheless, the rise of the far-right means it will be harder to make policy changes and necessary reforms in Sweden, especially when it comes to humanitarian migration, climate change, public welfare system, labour market, taxation and government size. What is happening in Sweden is also a part of a more European and global trend regarding political behaviors that historian Stephen Davies calls the “Great Realignment” - conservative parties are becoming less market-liberal, pro-globalization and for the smaller public sector while becoming more market-interventionist, anti-globalization and welfarist.
For example, as a young libertarian, the leader of the Conservative Party Ulf Kristersson promoted free immigration but now wants more prevention for labor immigration despite Sweden, in general having a functioning system globally seen as one of the most liberal. Conservatives’ smaller partners Christian Democrats, famous for favoring the promotion of religious values, want to ban Muslim prayer in public and to make it harder for refugees to come to Sweden. While the officially ideologically driven Liberal Party, one of the oldest political and liberal parties in global history with many historical accomplishments contributing to making Sweden one of the best places to live in, decided after an opportunistic and arbitrary process to campaign for forming a “liberal-right wing government” with indirect support from the Sweden-Democrats that have declared liberalism as one of its main ideological enemies.
Therefore, the recent elections are not only a success for the far-right but also a collapse of the libertarian right alliance in politics. In several cases, Sweden Democrats have been “brown washed” by leading market-liberal opinion makers claiming that the far-right has “changed” and that the Sweden Democrats are not anti-liberal, not against liberal democracy nor even racists in their program. Many right-wingers in Sweden have since 2015 promoted that “Sweden should become more as Denmark” even though Denmark has become less open, liberal, and tolerant as a society since the 2000s while even market-liberal right-wing parties are competing who is going to offer more welfare benefits and fewer refugees.
The collapse of a more libertarian right in Sweden started with the problems within the former liberal and conservative alliance that governed the nation during 2006-2014. The alliance made Sweden one of the most deregulated, liberalized and open economies while reducing inequality and much non-primary government spending. However, despite of such political achievements, the alliance was influenced by problems regarding ideology, common ground, and visions. Conflicts and disagreements between liberals and conservatives became more visible and even before 2015 one could hear conservative politicians saying things about how they admire the labor market system or that that amount of privatization has reached the finish line.
Things in Sweden are not better with many humanitarian left-wingers still making bad and outdated conclusions that the rise of Sweden Democrats is due to “neoliberalism destroying Sweden” despite problems with the current welfare state being very bureaucratic and even benefiting the middle-class residents regarding certain benefits. Many still believe in myths that the majority of voters of Sweden Democrats are poor and unemployed, so the far-right will disappear with more welfare spending, government intervention and higher taxes. Therefore, one can also speak about the ideological crisis as in the Social Democratic Party, today mainly a party for middle-class voters, with many members still thinking in the style of “we need a new Olof Palme” in order to win the next elections and be in power.
Compared to the elections in 2010 that were influenced by more visionary communication, the recent elections have been commented by people both on the moderate political left and right to be uninspiring, focusing on policy details and lacking visionary storytelling. The far-right has changed its rhetoric from “Preserve Sweden Swedish” during the 1990s to “Give Us Sweden Back” during the 2000s, “Change For Real” during the 2010s, and recently communicating that “ Sweden Is Going To Become Better Again”. But the far-right wants changes based on politics of hate, fear and nostalgia as for the 1970s and with ambitions to abolish Sweden as an open, individualist and globalized society.
Making Sweden a more liberal and inclusive society will be very hard as the Social Democrats and the Conservative Party will compete with Sweden Democrats for the same voters and thereby focus more on conserving things rather than changing and reforming. Sweden Democrats will demand more influence over policy areas such as immigration, welfare, and culture with Victor Orban’s rule in Hungary as an inspiration. It is even harder to make changes to enable better integration of refugees and justice policies because the far-right is not interested in improving integration and refugee reception since they have always seen immigration as an existential threat to Sweden. As the liberal-opinion maker Mattias Svensson writes the case is that Sweden Democrats create criminal policy proposals as if they were designed for 15 years boys who play a lot of computer games and for voters who want to punish residents in neighborhoods with social problems.
One has to keep in mind that Sweden became one of the most liberalized, deregulated and open societies during favorable stories (as "The End of History") and technological development after the Cold War. Political reforms and changes are going to be necessary sooner or later following the current and future trend with decentralized, disruptive and digitalizing technology as in the cases of blockchain and Web 3. Because such technology makes it easier for humans to cooperate, live in communities and create housing, jobs, and ecology solutions without “the middlemen” like banks and governments. Another example is artificial intelligence, which will be needed to foster innovation in the welfare and education sectors.
Despite all of the current development, Sweden is still one of the most liberal parts of Europe and among the most open societies globally. The rise of the far-right has changed earlier political formations and pushed conservative parties into more authoritarian and collectivist development. With the rise of new ideas and technology, there is still a chance for creating new alliances based on liberal values, global awareness, climate transformation optimism, and humanistic focus. But things will be harder compared to earlier periods, meaning that liberals and others with universalist values and ambitions need to act in more complex, compassionate, and coherent ways to make a difference towards the 2030s.
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